VC is More Like Chess Than Poker
You missed a huge part of the analogy between any type of investing (in this case VC) and poker - sizing your bets according to the risk/uncertainty, also known as conviction - what stage are you in, pre-flop, turn, river, and what betting position are you operating from, on the marker, big blind, little blind, etc.
However, given the time horizon in venture, I don’t believe poker is the good analogy for a VC. I think it’s like a chess master playing multiple games at once, each game representing a portfolio company or a potential one, with money on every move. The better you are at chess, the more moves ahead you can envision. In the strictest sense, you’re actually advising one side (CEO) of each match with your money at risk. As with poker, your advice won’t win every match, and your opponents usually have more information or time to assess moves, but with experience comes wisdom. Also, in this scenario, just like in VC, you spend a lot more time strategizing on matches you are losing than those you are winning.
Originally posted as a comment by gbattle on Why Didn’t I Think of That? using DISQUS.
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