“ I was in Korea last week with a collection of suit-wearing hotshots. On a panel sat Takatoshi Kato, IMF Deputy Managing Director. Before the discussion he gave us a powerpoint lecture showing the IMF projections for 2010, 2011, …, 2014. I could not control myself and got into a state of rage. I told the audience that the next time someone from the IMF shows you projections for some dates in the future, to show us what they PROJECTED for 2008 and 2009 in 2004, 2005, …, and 2007. They would then verify that Mr. Takatoshi and his colleagues provide a prime illustration to the “expert problem”: they serve as experts while offering the scientific reliability of astrologers. Anyone relying on them is a turkey. „
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has no problem sticking his foot up people’s ass when it comes to predictive capacity.  He is the real people’s hero bringing robust common sense back into the conversation. [via]

Quote posted at 8:02 AM (3 months ago) | Permalink